SPCX · SpaceX Tracker

Single source of truth — auto-refreshed Jul 20, 2026 3:37 PM · catalysts & news pulled live each day
12-Month Projection (median)
$164
▲ 36.0% from today's $120.55
Range: $46 – $510 (P10–P90)
Sentiment
Mildly Bearish
-8/100
Confidence
18%
Model MAE
—
0-day avg err
Band Hit Rate
—

Price Timeline — 5 Days Actual · Today · 5 Days Projected

Mon Jul 20
$121
$116–$125
today
Tue Jul 21
$121
$112–$129
proj D+1
Wed Jul 22
$121
$109–$133
proj D+2
Thu Jul 23
$121
$106–$136
proj D+3
Fri Jul 24
$122
$104–$139
proj D+4
Mon Jul 27
$122
$103–$142
proj D+5
Blue = realized closes · Green = today's model estimate · Purple dashed = forward projection with widening confidence cone.

Model Report Card — Projected vs Actual (last 5 days)

DateProjectedActualErrorIn Band?Called On
Mon Jul 20 — $120.55 — — —
Backtest builds over time — after a few daily runs, this shows how yesterday's forward call held up against today's real close.

What Moved the Number Today

  • • ✗ Starship Flight 13 - V3 Starlink + heat shield failed (-8%)
  • • Net news sentiment: -0.08
  • • 4 catalysts pending, 1 resolved

Catalyst Watch (live)

Starship Flight 13 - V3 Starlink + heat shield
Jul 23, 2026 · 75% odds · SpaceX’s Shares Tank After Starship Fails to Launc
Failed
Pentagon AI compute contract
Oct 15, 2026 · 60% odds
Pending
Q3 2026 Earnings
Oct 30, 2026 · 65% odds
Pending
Starship cadence / return-to-pad
Jan 15, 2027 · 70% odds
Pending
FY2026 Earnings + 2027 guidance
Jan 30, 2027 · 55% odds
Pending

News Summary — Read Further

Starship's Thirteenth Flight Test [July 20, 2026 18:45 - 20:15 ET]
The thirteenth flight test of Starship is preparing to launch as early as Monday, July 20. The 90-minute launch window will open at 5:45 p.m. CT.A live webcast of the flight test w…
starship Freerepublic.com Jul 19, 9:13 AM ▲ sentiment
Beyond rockets and satellites, SpaceX is quietly building an AI compute business that may become key to its eye-popping valuation
Deals with Google and Anthropic to rent out computing capacity could generate $26 billion a year.
ai compute Yahoo Entertainment Jul 19, 7:00 AM ▲ sentiment
SpaceX’s Shares Tank After Starship Fails to Launch - Futurism
SpaceX’s Shares Tank After Starship Fails to LaunchFuturism Starship's Thirteenth Flight TestSpaceX Post-ignition anomaly causes abort of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 13Spaceflight Now…
starship Slashdot.org Jul 19, 4:52 AM ▼ sentiment
SpaceX’s Shares Tank After Starship Fails to Launch
SpaceX was forced to scrub the 13th test flight of its hulking Starship spacecraft Thursday evening. A computer system automatically aborted the launch as the mega rocket fired up …
starship Biztoc.com Jul 18, 8:14 PM ▼ sentiment
Ukraine set to get its own 'Starlink' satellite constellation with SpaceX starting in 2027 as $1bn project powers on despite CEO death
Ukraine’s Stetman plans a 360-satellite constellation by 2027, using SpaceX launches and European partnerships despite leadership changes.
starship TechRadar Jul 18, 6:05 PM — sentiment
A US tech start-up wants to turn night into day. The question is why?
Reflect Orbital has won initial approval for a plan to put thousands of mirrors in orbit that would be visible from anywhere on Earth. But will anyone pay for sunlight?
starship ABC News (AU) Jul 18, 2:55 PM — sentiment
SpaceX targets next week for another Starship launch attempt as shares slide on abort - Reuters
SpaceX targets next week for another Starship launch attempt as shares slide on abortReuters Starship's Thirteenth Flight TestSpaceX SpaceX stock closes at lows after first test fl…
starship Slashdot.org Jul 18, 2:13 PM ▼ sentiment
SpaceX (SPCX) Is Down 14.7% After Starship Abort and Rising Scrutiny of Its Lofty Valuation - Yahoo Finance
SpaceX (SPCX) Is Down 14.7% After Starship Abort and Rising Scrutiny of Its Lofty ValuationYahoo Finance Starship's Thirteenth Flight TestSpaceX SpaceX stock has cratered nearly 23…
starship Slashdot.org Jul 18, 10:32 AM — sentiment
Elon Musk's SpaceX in talks to supply the Pentagon with computing power: Report
According to the report, SpaceX employees have discussed plans to compete more directly with neocloud firms ​such as CoreWeave by selling computing capacity ⁠to AI ‌customers at lo…
ai compute The Times of India Jul 17, 11:20 PM — sentiment
SpaceX Eager to Support the Pentagon’s Lethal AI Models
SpaceX is in talks with the Pentagon about providing the military access to its data-center capacity for running AI models
ai compute Futurism Jul 17, 5:50 PM — sentiment
Musk's SpaceX in talks to supply the Pentagon with computing power, WSJ reports
July 17 : Elon Musk's SpaceX is in talks to provide the U.S. Department of Defense with access to data center capacity worth billions of dollars to run AI models, the Wall Street J…
ai compute CNA Jul 17, 3:27 PM — sentiment
I Left Google DeepMind
I fought against Google’s Pentagon AI deal from the inside. Powerful people and institutions failed to keep their AI ethics promises under pressure.
ai compute Turntrout.com Jul 15, 2:40 PM — sentiment
Trump Sons' Lucrative New Investments: Defense Tech
President Trump's sons have moved beyond hotels and golf courses and into a corner of the economy that now overlaps with their father's national security agenda. A Washington Post …
ai compute Newser Jul 13, 8:44 AM ▼ sentiment
FO Exclusive: Global Lightning Roundup of June 2026
Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, recap the most i…
geopolitical Fair Observer Jul 14, 9:57 AM — sentiment
How to Invest in SpaceX Stock After Its Nasdaq-100 Debut
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), which went public in the biggest IPO in history on June 12, joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. That inclusion, driven by Nasdaq's (NASDAQ: NDAQ) fast-track rul…
macro Biztoc.com Jul 19, 9:10 AM — sentiment
SpaceX Stock Is Now Well Below Its IPO Price. Here's Why I Still Wouldn't Buy Shares
That happened fast. Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has stumbled nearly 45% from highs set in the days after its massive initial public offering (IPO) earlier this ye…
macro Biztoc.com Jul 19, 8:25 AM ▼ sentiment
SpaceX (SPCX) Loses Its IPO Premium as a Bigger Supply Test Looms
With investors increasingly questioning whether massive AI and infrastructure spending will generate adequate returns, Space Exploration Technologies Corp (N...
macro Yahoo Entertainment Jul 18, 7:34 PM — sentiment
2 Space Stocks You Should Buy Before Piling Into SpaceX
The space economy has captured the spotlight this year, primarily driven by the highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), b…
macro Biztoc.com Jul 18, 1:26 PM — sentiment
Don Jr. and Eric Trump are profiting from their father's policies: report
Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have made significant investments in military-related startups.According to a Washington Post investigation published Monday, "The companies have co…
macro Raw Story Jul 13, 9:15 PM — sentiment
OpenAI And Anthropic Are Preparing For IPOs—Here’s How They Stack Up
OpenAI and Anthropic have both confidentially filed for historic IPOs. Discover how their valuations, revenue growth, and corporate strategies compare before they go public.
macro Forbes Jul 9, 2:51 PM ▲ sentiment
SpaceX stock drops 45% from post-IPO high as Cathie Wood buys $51M more
SpaceX shares fell 45% from their post-IPO high to $124 as Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $52.1M more, alongside Coinbase and Circle purchases. The post SpaceX stock drops 45% fro…
other Crypto Briefing Jul 19, 3:08 PM — sentiment
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Has Plunged 45% From Its Post-IPO High, and Cathie Wood Recently Bought $51 Million of It
other Yahoo Entertainment Jul 19, 2:55 PM ▼ sentiment
As SpaceX Declines, Gary Black Says He Won't Get Excited Until SPCX Stock Falls Below $100—Ross Gerber Asks 'Can It Hold?'
As SpaceX Declines, Gary Black Says He Won't Get Excited Until SPCX Stock Falls Below $100—Ross Gerber Asks 'Can It Hold?' Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or rev…
other Biztoc.com Jul 19, 12:58 PM ▼ sentiment
SpaceX shares fall 40% to $81, below initial listing price of $135
SpaceX stock crashes 40% to $81, well below its $135 IPO price, after briefly hitting $225. The company's 18,712 BTC treasury adds a crypto dimension to the The post SpaceX shares …
other Crypto Briefing Jul 19, 2:21 AM ▼ sentiment
Astronauts Marooned On Moon Could Be Abandoned Under Current NASA Plan
NASA’s masterplan for upcoming lunar landings has a massive flaw that could prove fatal to the U.S. astronauts set to touch down on the Moon in 2028, say NASA inspectors.
other Forbes Jul 19, 12:48 AM ▼ sentiment
Traders bet against SpaceX following IPO debut as short interest hits 29% of float
SpaceX short interest surged to 29% of float after its $75 billion IPO, with $25 billion in bearish bets as traders question the $2 trillion valuation. The post Traders bet against…
other Crypto Briefing Jul 18, 11:08 PM ▲ sentiment
NASA’s Artemis III Lander Test Will be a "Dress Rehearsal" for Returning to the Moon!
Before Artemis astronauts land on the Moon’s surface in 2028, NASA will conduct the Artemis III demonstration mission in 2027, allowing teams on Earth and in orbit to practice rend…
other Universe Today Jul 18, 10:41 PM — sentiment
SpaceX loses its IPO premium as larger supply test approaches
SpaceX shares have fallen below their $135 IPO price to around $124 as lockup expirations loom, with implications for capital flows into crypto and risk The post SpaceX loses its I…
other Crypto Briefing Jul 18, 7:50 PM ▼ sentiment
CEO: SpaceX's record IPO was the space economy's opening act. Here's what comes next.
The space economy is already having its strongest year on record, and there are still two quarters to go.
other Yahoo Entertainment Jul 18, 10:06 AM ▲ sentiment
SPCX Tracker · Catalysts & news pulled live daily · Educational model, not financial advice
Catalyst-weighted Monte Carlo (20k paths) + runtime news/catalyst detection + self-backtesting · 2026